Après trois années de récession, l’économie namibienne devrait à nouveau renouer avec une croissance positive en 2020. C’est l’une des principales conclusions de la mission effectuée par une équipe du Fonds monétaire international (FMI) en Namibie, en vue de discuter des développements récents et des perspectives économiques dans le cadre de ses activités de surveillance régulières, du 24 au 28 février 2020.
Impulsée par l’accélération de la production minière et l’atténuation de la sécheresse enregistrée l’an dernier, la croissance économique de la Namibie devrait ressortir positive à 1,6% du PIB en 2020.
Cette légère reprise intervient après une période de récession qu’a traversé le pays avec des taux de croissance négatifs de -0,9%, -0,1% et -0,2% observés respectivement en 2017, 2018 et 2019, selon le FMI.
Toutefois, relève l’institution, cette projection de croissance pourrait être revue à la baisse en raison principalement d’un recul de la croissance mondiale à mesure que les risques liés au virus COVID-19 se matérialisent, ainsi que des recettes et des dérapages fiscaux de l’Union douanière d’Afrique australe (SACU) plus faibles que prévu qui mineraient les efforts du gouvernement pour stabiliser la dynamique de la dette publique.
A ce sujet, le FMI recommande aux autorités namibiennes la poursuite des politiques d’ajustement budgétaire afin de stabiliser la dette publique dans le temps et équilibrer l’ajustement avec des réformes plus larges pour soutenir la croissance, ainsi que de relancer les réformes structurelles pour notamment stimuler la création d’emplois.
« En l’absence de réformes structurelles, la croissance ne se renforcerait que progressivement à moyen terme », fait remarquer le FMI.
(Ecofin)
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